June Hike Up for Debate as Jobs Data Looms

Last Week: Yields moved higher and held through the week, as equities and mostly positive economic data releases left an impression of a gradually improving US economy. Standout news for the week was the upward revision in Q1 GDP from 0.5% to 0.9% and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday which signaled a probable rate […]

Summer Federal Reserve Hike in Focus

Last Week: Another week of market moving, surprise news, as Wednesday’s release of minutes from April’s FOMC minutes showed most Federal Reserve policymakers believed an interest-rate hike would be appropriate in June if the economy continued to improve, but were divided over whether those conditions were likely to be met in time.   After a […]

Retail Sales Keep Fed in Play for June Hike

Last Week: A mostly ho-hum week until Friday’s release of Retail Sales data for April, which showed American consumers shook off the winter doldrums with gusto. Retail sales climbed in April by the most in 13 months, turning a disappointing Q1 on its head. The gain was broad-based, with purchases picking up at auto dealers, […]

Fed Derailed by Jobs Data?

Last Week: The highlight far and away was Friday’s jobs data, which came in lower than expected at 160K , with 19K of back revisions, versus a consensus of 200K, and versus a 203K average for Q1 2016. Treasury yields and the dollar nose dived after the news before rallying on the details of better wage […]

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Negative Interest Rates: Friend or Foe?

We’re all bombarded with news of the imposition of negative interest rates in Japan and in Europe, how it’s setting a historical precedence, why its happening and wonder if it’s possible in the US. While there’s a great deal of fear and misunderstanding around the idea that our beloved Federal Reserve could adopt a negative […]