Jobs Data to Keep Fed Hanging in the Balance

Last Week: In what would otherwise been a slow, boring week, Fed Chair Yellen’s much anticipated speech at Jackson Hole garnered everyone’s attention and rattled yields across the curve.  The central banker to the world made it clear – or at least as much as the she could – that the case for a rate […]

Communication Breakdown

Last Week:  The release of the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting showed officials of America’s central bank were divided over the urgency to raise interest rates again, with some preferring to wait because inflation remained benign and others wanting to hike soon on the back of the labor market’s near full employment. By week’s […]

Flying on One Engine

Last Week: Friday’s release of July Retail Sales data was the highlight of the week, and left markets disappointed as purchases by consumers were flat over the prior month. The lackluster report doesn’t bode well for an economy that is now dependent on vigorous spending by consumers to keep economic growth positive in the second half […]

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Swap Fatigue?

Negative Mark-to-Market (”MTM”) lt is likely that close to 90% of recently executed pay-fixed swap have negative market values today.  Current swap rates are, for the most part, lower than those for swaps executed I, 3, 6, or 12 months ago. In addition to movement in rates, one needs to take into account that swaps […]

Data Divergence Puts Fed in a Box

Last Week: The U.S. economy added 255k new nonfarm jobs in July, beating economist’s estimate of 180k. June’s jobs data was upwardly revised to 292k from 287k. Job gains coupled with a rise in the length of the workweek and a larger-than- expected increase in average hourly earnings resulted in a sharp monthly gain in […]