Event Deluge to Set the Course of Rates Through Year’s End

Last Week: Interest rates rose as global equities edged lower, with Japan’s Nikkei average a bright spot, closing at a 21-year high. The US 10-year Treasury yield continued its rise, ending the week at 2.42%, up from 2.38% a week ago. 1-month LIBOR followed suit, climbing to 1.2423% from 1.2379% the week prior. Oil rose […]

Momentum Building for a December Hike

Last Week: Interest rates and equities extended their gains amid signs the global economic expansion continues apace. US tax reform hopes and record-high equity indices helped fuel a rebound in US Treasury yields, which saw the yield on the 10-year note rise 11 basis points to 2.38%. 1-month LIBOR followed the 10-year’s move higher, climbing […]

Scant Inflation Puts Fed in a Box

Last Week: Interest rates pulled back from recent highs and global equities reached new peaks. The 10-year US Treasury note receded to 2.28% from 2.38% a week ago as 1-month LIBOR also fell to 1.2367% from 1.2377% the week prior. Oil recouped some recent loses, the US Dollar fell and Gold rallied.  Market volatility remains muted, trading […]

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What the Fed’s Great Unwind Means for Rates

The Beginning of the End of QE (“Quantitative Easing”). Its been well advertised the Fed will begin unwinding its $4.5 trillion-dollar balance sheet this month, initially by reinvesting a gradually smaller amount of Treasuries and allowing Mortgage-backed securities to mature without replacement in its massive portfolio. As such, October 2017 will go down in history […]

Data Distortions Making Fed’s Job Harder

Last Week: Interest rates and equities extended their gains, with fresh record highs posted globally. Solid economic data and hopes for a tax reform package helped push the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note to 2.38% from 2.32% over the last week, with 1-month LIBOR also moving higher to 1.2350% from 1.2338% the week prior. Oil slipped […]