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Fed vs Treasury Tug of War to Dominate Rate Moves

Last Week: Interest rates were mixed, and equities were higher on the week as the economic fallout from the pandemic became clearer. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury traded within its well-worn yield range, bouncing a mere 7 basis points between its 0.70% peak seen mid-week and its 0.63% trough. 1-month LIBOR continued its […]

Resist the Flat Yield Curve Hype

Last Week: Interest rates were mixed and global equities rose modestly as geo-political tensions and solid economic data continued their tug-of-war on markets. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 3 basis points to 2.86% while 1-month LIBOR fell 1 basis point to 2.069%. Oil fell another $2.50 to $68, as the US […]

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Beware the Flat Yield Curve

While the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike was totally anticipated, market’s and the Fed’s expectations for where interest rates are headed are miles apart. This difference of opinion is expressed in flat Treasury yield curves, where the Fed, by way of its pronouncements of future hikes, pushes short-term rates higher and markets, via their lingering doubts […]

Flat Yield Curve Conundrum Likely to Persist Through Year-End

Last Week: Interest rates were mixed while equities edged slightly lower amid an uptick in volatility. The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 2.35%, while 1-month LIBOR continued its march higher, climbing to 1.2871% from 1.2504% a week ago. Oil and the US Dollar fell as Gold rallied. Market volatility, as measured by the Chicago […]

The Flat Yield Curve: A Growing Disconnect Between Markets and the Fed

Last Week: Interest Rates were mixed as equities set record highs again, both against a backdrop of solid US economic and earnings growth. Yields on US 10-year Treasury notes edged lower, trading at 2.34% versus 2.42% a week ago while 1-month LIBOR traded slightly higher to 1.2432% from 1.2421% the week prior. Oil rose by […]